1501 Fairfield Rd

Fairfield, TN 37186

$255,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2024 · Other · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,933/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,340
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $15/mo
• Annual: $180/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $71,540

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $256k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($180/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#426 in TN) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Sumner County (suburban): math 44% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #12 of 139 in TN (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westmoreland Elementary (math 41% / reading 33%, grade F, #272 of 952 statewide, top 31%, 525 students, 0% FRL); Westmoreland Middle School (math 39% / reading 28%, grade F, #73 of 333 statewide, top 23%, 430 students, 0% FRL); Westmoreland High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 526 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1,748 units permitted in Sumner County in 2024 (124 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumner County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.