3542 Orchard Rd

Iron Station, NC 28080

$171,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,444 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $215/mo
• Annual: $2,586/yr
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $47,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $171k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#639 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lincoln County Schools (rural): math 57% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #42 of 178 in NC (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Iron Station Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #249 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 376 students, 64% FRL); East Lincoln High (math 65% / reading 73%, grade B, #131 of 535 statewide, top 25%, 1,047 students, 29% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 697 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.0% in Iron Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.