3542 Orchard Rd · Iron Station, NC 28080

$171,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1982 0.28 ac lot Est $140k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living with four bedrooms and priced to sell this ranch home won't last long. Situated conveniently between Denver and Lincolnton. Included is a one year home buyer warranty.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 71 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Site built
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Concrete and paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $171k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.0% in Iron Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#639 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lincoln County Schools (rural): math 57% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #42 of 178 in NC (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Iron Station Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #249 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 376 students, 64% FRL); East Lincoln High (math 65% / reading 73%, grade B, #131 of 535 statewide, top 25%, 1,047 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 697 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,740 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,068
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3388 Rhyne Forest Rd	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,493 (+3%)	7mo	$145,000	$97	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,982
• Equity at exit: $25,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,511
• Equity at exit: $14,785

Cash invested: $47,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28080

• Home prices YoY: -11.2%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,324/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $171,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,750
• Closing costs: $5,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $171,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $179,900
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $184,900 Active
16. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Country living with four bedrooms and priced to sell this ranch home won't last long. Situated conveniently between Denver and Lincolnton. Included is a one year home buyer warranty.

17. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $150,000

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Country living with four bedrooms and priced to sell this ranch home won't last long. Situated conveniently between Denver and Lincolnton. Included is a one year home buyer warranty.

18. 2020-10-29
    status Pending 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Country living with four bedrooms and priced to sell this ranch home won't last long. Situated conveniently between Denver and Lincolnton. Included is a one year home buyer warranty.

19. 2020-09-29
    historical Active Under Contract 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Country living with four bedrooms and priced to sell this ranch home won't last long. Situated conveniently between Denver and Lincolnton. Included is a one year home buyer warranty.

20. 2020-09-19
    listed $150,000 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Country living with four bedrooms and priced to sell this ranch home won't last long. Situated conveniently between Denver and Lincolnton. Included is a one year home buyer warranty.

21. 2003-09-29
    soldstatus $99,500
22. 2001-12-11
    soldstatus $21,901

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,579
• − Property taxes: −$1,324
• − Insurance: −$1,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$4,975
• Taxable loss: −$173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $2,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702680
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,203
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #2242
• State rank: #42 of 178 in NC

Livability — Iron Station

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #23265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iron Station, NC
• Population (ZIP): 8,075

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,972 people
• By 2030: 89,467 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 93,107 · +7.1%
• By 2050: 94,304 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 95,190 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 90,096 · +3.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.7) · D 26.8% · R 72.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.3pp · 2024: -45.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.7 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+33.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.23%
• Current HPI: 327.9588
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+721.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $179,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $184,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-29 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-29 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-19 Listed $150,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $99,500 Public Records
• 2001-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $21,901 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,324 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.