5110 Sistine Dr

Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$349,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,961 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$1,151
• HOA: −$106
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-870/mo
• Annual: $-10,435/yr
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.68%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-870 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meridiana El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 998 students, 42% FRL); Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?