1207 Pine Haven Ct

Camp Nelson, CA 93265

$218,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,471/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-239/mo
• Annual: $-2,867/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.70%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $61,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (32.5% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $147k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 25/100 on livability (#1,489 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Springville Union Elementary (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #476 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $172k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.