1207 Pine Haven Ct · Camp Nelson, CA 93265

$218,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1973 0.61 ac lot Est $186k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Livability +1.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!!! This home is located in Camp Nelson with easy access to Highway 190 from a paved driveway and access from Pine Haven Court, yet it's a quiet location because it is nestled among nature above the noise. And with more than 1/2 acre of forested land, you will feel like you have entered your own forest retreat. The home has 2 bedrooms, 1 3/4 bathrooms, a large living area with a raised hearth fireplace, the kitchen is open to the living room with a breakfast bar and dining area. There is also a bonus room that could easily be converted to a bedroom, studio or tv/game room. The lot is forested with varieties of pine, fir and cedar trees. There are several Costal Re

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Paved driveway
• Bonus room

Tags

• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• BONUS ROOM
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• BASEMENT WITH SHOP AREA
• SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction with vertical siding; Shingle roof; Built on a single level
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Storage; Covered deck/patio; Outbuilding(s), shed(s), additional storage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; High ceilings; Laminate counters; Breakfast bar; Walk-in closets; Fireplace with heatilator and raised hearth
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside with sink (in basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 25/100 on livability (#1,489 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Springville Union Elementary (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #476 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $172k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,082 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.70%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,980
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1184 Highway 190	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+5%)	10mo	$309,000	$269	80
1183 Bourbon Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	950 (-13%)	15mo	$149,000	$157	56
1495 Nelson Dr	0.27mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,048 (-4%)	20mo	$170,000	$162	55
184 Manzanita Ct Ct	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+10%)	11mo	$204,300	$170	49
466 Sutherland Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	939 (-14%)	7mo	$160,000	$170	44
657 Loop Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	968 (-12%)	9mo	$185,100	$191	42
1823 Barnes Ct	0.52mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,030 (-6%)	24mo	$173,000	$168	37
1835 Barnes Ct	0.52mi	1/1.0 (-1)	963 (-12%)	16mo	$135,000	$140	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $103,471
• Equity at exit: $196,392

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $316,586
• Equity at exit: $423,526

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93265

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,001/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,773

Max offer price $175,801

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $218,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $218,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $218,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,001 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,001 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 13 d/yr ≥82°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 51 unhealthy d/yr today · 54 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$2,001
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$6,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,881
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #476 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Camp Nelson

• Score: 25/100
• State rank: #1489
• US rank: #27998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camp Nelson, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,532

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.24%
• Current HPI: 361.9818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+129.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $218,000 TCMLS
• 2019-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,001 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.