785 Locksley Rd

Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY 10598

$629,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax + insurance: −$1,458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-807/mo
• Annual: $-9,684/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $176,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $629k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $486k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $486k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Yorktown Central School District (rural): math 67% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #83 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Jefferson Valley-Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.