785 Locksley Rd · Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY 10598

$629,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 1953 0.29 ac lot $362/sqft · 21% below area Est $798k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled along a picturesque, tree-lined street on more than a quarter of an acre, this sun-drenched 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is the epitome of timeless class blended seamlessly with modern convenience. From the moment you arrive, you’ll be captivated by its warmth, charm, and exceptional attention to detail. At the heart of the home is a custom chef’s kitchen featuring elegant quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and thoughtfully designed space perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Beautifully finished hardwood floors flow throughout, complemented by refined crown moldings and two newly renovated, luxurious bathrooms that offer spa-like comfort. The inv

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Custom chefs kitchen
• Crown moldings

Tags

• CUSTOM CHEFS KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CROWN MOLDINGS
• NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $486k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $486k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Jefferson Valley-Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Yorktown Central School District (rural): math 67% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #83 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $486,443 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $798,215
• List price: $629,000
• Delta: -21.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
804 Fox Meadow Rd	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,671 (-4%)	10mo	$735,000	$440	69
2796 Larkspur St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+1%)	12mo	$580,000	$331	64
990 Lester Rd	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,724 (-1%)	9mo	$745,000	$432	62
2764 Old Yorktown Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,620 (-7%)	15mo	$680,500	$420	54
2766 Cecile Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,548 (-11%)	12mo	$675,309	$436	53
2710 Crompond Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,853 (+7%)	22mo	$720,000	$389	51
705 Toni Ct	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,850 (+7%)	23mo	$840,000	$454	48
610 Granite Springs Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-7%)	5mo	$620,000	$383	46
2795 Moreland St	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,950 (+12%)	11mo	$630,000	$323	42
520 Elizabeth Rd	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,530 (-12%)	6mo	$665,000	$435	35
2797 Carr Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-14%)	21mo	$695,000	$463	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-152,995
• Equity at exit: $93,786

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-198,077
• Equity at exit: $54,384

Cash invested: $176,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10598

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax from tax record: −$1,071 /mo · $12,854/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,021

Max offer price $486,443

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,250
• Closing costs: $18,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2796 Old Yorktown Rd Yorktown Heights, NY	3.0	2.0	1531	$5,000	$3.27	1d	1	0.38mi
2662 Dunning Dr Yorktown Heights, NY	4.0	1.0	1800	$5,000	$2.78	1d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $629,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $629,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $629,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $629,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $629,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $629,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $629,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $629,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $629,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    status Active
11. 2026-05-12
    price $629,000
12. 2026-03-30
    price $650,000
13. 2026-03-09
    price $675,000
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $699,000 Active
15. 2026-01-15
    soldstatus $450,000
16. 2021-04-09
    soldstatus $300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,854 · $1,071/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,854 · $1,071/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,234
• − Property taxes: −$12,854
• − Insurance: −$4,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$18,298
• Taxable loss: −$20,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,952
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorktown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631980
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $117,838
• Composite: 65.83/100
• National rank: #454
• State rank: #83 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jefferson Valley-Yorktown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY
• City population: 323
• Population (ZIP): 28,894

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -580.71%
• Current HPI: 248.9112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+109.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,854 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.