2021 Avis Cir

Mesquite, TX 75149

$149,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 985 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,686/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$380
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,989/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcwhorter El (math 40% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 516 students, 93% FRL); Wilkinson Middle (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 702 students, 90% FRL); West Mesquite H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,172 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 63% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 345 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $98k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.