2021 Avis Cir · Mesquite, TX 75149

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 985 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1960 7,362 sqft lot $152/sqft · 29% below area Est $210k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. The living area offers natural light and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. The bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. Enjoy a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with carport parking and practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Natural light
• Carport parking

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CARPORT PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 345 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $98k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,722
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -28.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2021 Avis Cir	0.00mi	3/1.0	985 (0%)	0mo	$149,900	$152	100
1325 Woodcrest Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	946 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$137	84
1837 Grove Cir	0.21mi	3/1.0	957 (-3%)	3mo	$125,000	$131	83
1817 Grove Cir	0.18mi	3/1.0	957 (-3%)	8mo	$138,000	$144	80
1229 Greenbrier Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	912 (-7%)	3mo	$179,000	$196	70
1634 Evergreen Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,020 (+4%)	8mo	$169,900	$167	68
1433 Melanie Ln	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,030 (+5%)	8mo	$215,000	$209	64
1409 W Bruton Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,055 (+7%)	3mo	$126,000	$119	64
1519 Briarwood Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	930 (-6%)	10mo	$199,000	$214	58
1222 Athens Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (+10%)	5mo	$247,500	$228	57
2452 Lindale Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	922 (-6%)	12mo	$225,000	$244	51
1705 Magnolia Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,077 (+9%)	5mo	$235,000	$218	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-18,216
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,651
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75149

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,814/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,476

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $208	+0% $166	+5% $123	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $99	+0% $166	+5% $232	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $204	base $166	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2045 Avis Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	25d	1	0.06mi
2005 Mount Pleasant Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	939	$1,545	$1.65	9d	1	0.15mi
11405 S Blossom Cir Balch Springs, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$1,500	$1.63	3d	1	0.84mi
12227 Quail Dr Balch Springs, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	729	$1,200	$1.65	16d	1	1.03mi
2255 W Bruton Rd Mesquite, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,819	$1.90	45d	12	1.13mi
3212 Balch Springs Rd Balch Springs, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,245	$1.51	9d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $149,900 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. The living area offers natural light and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. The bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. Enjoy a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with carport parking and practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $199,950 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. The living area offers natural light and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. The bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. Enjoy a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with carport parking and practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

3. 2026-04-17
   listed $247,500 Active 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. The living area offers natural light and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. The bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. Enjoy a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with carport parking and practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

4. 2025-02-02
   historical $1,470
5. 2025-01-16
   price $1,470
6. 2024-12-18
   price $1,485
7. 2024-12-15
   price $1,515
8. 2024-12-05
   price $1,545
9. 2024-11-28
   price $1,560
10. 2024-11-21
    price $1,580
11. 2024-11-15
    price $1,595
12. 2024-11-12
    listed $1,630
13. 2024-11-12
    historical $1,630
14. 2024-11-06
    price $1,630
15. 2024-11-05
    price $1,505
16. 2024-11-04
    price $1,630
17. 2024-11-02
    listed $1,505

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,814 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,814 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,814
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$78
• After-tax cash flow: $2,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,262
• Household income: $70,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2266.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 25% Two or more races 21% Black 20% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 345.6606
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9860.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,950 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $247,500 NTREIS
• 2025-02-02 Rental Removed $1,470 NTREIS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $1,470 NTREIS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $1,485 NTREIS
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $1,515 NTREIS
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $1,545 NTREIS
• 2024-11-28 Price Changed $1,560 NTREIS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $1,580 NTREIS
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $1,595 NTREIS
• 2024-11-12 Listed for Rent $1,630 NTREIS
• 2024-11-12 Rental Removed $1,630 PROPERTYWARE
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $1,630 PROPERTYWARE
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $1,505 PROPERTYWARE
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $1,630 PROPERTYWARE
• 2024-11-02 Listed for Rent $1,505 PROPERTYWARE

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,814 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.