5901 Misty Morning Ln

Myrtle Grove, NC 28409

$199,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 744 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,735/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-54/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-54/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#147 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heyward C Bellamy Elem (math 65% / reading 65%, grade B+, #145 of 1,410 statewide, top 10%, 556 students, 38% FRL); Myrtle Grove Middle (math 40% / reading 49%, grade D, #169 of 475 statewide, top 37%, 645 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Ashley High (math 48% / reading 68%, grade C, #243 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,975 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Myrtle Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.