5901 Misty Morning Ln · Myrtle Grove, NC 28409

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 744 sqft · Manufactured · 163 Days on market

Built 1990 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is perfect for a beach get-a-way or fishing trip. Located in the heart of Wilmington and in a highly sought after school district. Less than 5 miles from a public boat ramp. And minutes to Carolina Beach. This could also be a great cash flow investment property. All appliances convey! Some furniture is negotiable.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Trails end boat ramp
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• MYRTLE GARDENS NEIGHBORHOOD
• TRAILS END BOAT RAMP
• COVERED PORCH
• FENCED GARDENING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-15

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking; Covered parking; Unpaved parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; No additional utilities listed
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Chain link partial backyard fencing; Shed(s); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Smoke detectors installed; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-54/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Myrtle Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#147 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heyward C Bellamy Elem (math 65% / reading 65%, grade B+, #145 of 1,410 statewide, top 10%, 556 students, 38% FRL); Myrtle Grove Middle (math 40% / reading 49%, grade D, #169 of 475 statewide, top 37%, 645 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Ashley High (math 48% / reading 68%, grade C, #243 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,975 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,516 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,071
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,102
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28409

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $198,353

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $64	+0% $-4	+5% $-73	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-73	+0% $-4	+5% $64	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $46	base $-4	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $199,000 Pending 163 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-03-06
   status Active
5. 2026-03-06
   price $199,000
6. 2026-02-20
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-01-20
   price $209,000
8. 2026-01-20
   price $20,900
9. 2026-01-02
   price $219,000
10. 2025-12-19
    listed $229,000 Active
11. 2022-11-15
    soldstatus $175,000
12. 2022-11-10
    price $117,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This property is perfect for a beach get-a-way or fishing trip. Located in the heart of Wilmington and in a highly sought after school district. Less than 5 miles from a public boat ramp. And minutes to Carolina Beach. This could also be a great cash flow investment property. All appliances convey! Some furniture is negotiable.

13. 2022-11-09
    soldstatus $107,500 Closed 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This property is perfect for a beach get-a-way or fishing trip. Located in the heart of Wilmington and in a highly sought after school district. Less than 5 miles from a public boat ramp. And minutes to Carolina Beach. This could also be a great cash flow investment property. All appliances convey! Some furniture is negotiable.

14. 2022-08-24
    status Pending 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This property is perfect for a beach get-a-way or fishing trip. Located in the heart of Wilmington and in a highly sought after school district. Less than 5 miles from a public boat ramp. And minutes to Carolina Beach. This could also be a great cash flow investment property. All appliances convey! Some furniture is negotiable.

15. 2022-08-19
    status Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This property is perfect for a beach get-a-way or fishing trip. Located in the heart of Wilmington and in a highly sought after school district. Less than 5 miles from a public boat ramp. And minutes to Carolina Beach. This could also be a great cash flow investment property. All appliances convey! Some furniture is negotiable.

16. 2022-07-22
    status Pending 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This property is perfect for a beach get-a-way or fishing trip. Located in the heart of Wilmington and in a highly sought after school district. Less than 5 miles from a public boat ramp. And minutes to Carolina Beach. This could also be a great cash flow investment property. All appliances convey! Some furniture is negotiable.

17. 2022-06-27
    listed $147,000 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This property is perfect for a beach get-a-way or fishing trip. Located in the heart of Wilmington and in a highly sought after school district. Less than 5 miles from a public boat ramp. And minutes to Carolina Beach. This could also be a great cash flow investment property. All appliances convey! Some furniture is negotiable.

18. 1989-05-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$822
• After-tax cash flow: $769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hanover County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703330
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 43.13/100
• National rank: #3081
• State rank: #61 of 178 in NC

Livability — Myrtle Grove

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #8212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Myrtle Grove, NC
• County: New Hanover County · 232,153 people
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,163
• Household income: $111,048
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 452.0

Population outlook (New Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,517 people
• By 2030: 279,586 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 318,223 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 354,831 · +36.7%
• By 2075: 437,158 · +68.5%
• By 2100: 486,769 · +87.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · New Hanover

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.1 2016: R+4.1 2012: R+4.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -378.14%
• Current HPI: 246.8527
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1890.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-20 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $209,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $20,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $219,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $229,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-10 Price Changed $117,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-11-09 Sold (MLS) $107,500 Hive MLS
• 2022-08-24 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2022-08-19 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2022-07-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2022-06-27 Listed $147,000 Hive MLS
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $176 · -57.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.