735 Watson Canyon Ct #218

San Ramon, CA 94582

$345,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 428 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$468
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-711/mo
• Annual: $-8,531/yr
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.83%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $96,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-711 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (36.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (26.9% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#4 in CA, #370 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Golden View Elementary (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,571 statewide, top 80%, 643 students, 8% FRL); Iron Horse Middle (1,009 students, 7% FRL); California High (math 90% / reading 90%, grade A+, #11 of 1,170 statewide, top 1%, 2,879 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 79% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the San Ramon Valley Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.4% in San Ramon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($215k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.