735 Watson Canyon Ct #218 · San Ramon, CA 94582

$345,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 428 sqft · Condo public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1988 $806/sqft · 15% below area Est $408k · 15% under $468/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Your perfect first home starts here at 735 Watson Canyon Ct #218 in San Ramon, CA. Stepping into homeownership just got a whole lot easier on this top end unit studio condo with amazing views. Welcome to this bright and thoughtfully designed studio condo in one of San Ramon’s most sought-after gated communities, the ideal place to begin your journey as a first-time buyer or if you are downsizing. This smartly laid out 428 sq ft home makes the most of every inch. The open living space feels airy and welcoming. A full bathroom and kitchen give you everything you need without the upkeep of a larger home. Built in 1988 this home offers the low-maintenance lifestyle first-time buyers love.

Key facts

• Top end unit
• Gated communities
• Unbeatable location

Tags

• TOP END UNIT
• GATED COMMUNITIES
• SPARKLING COMMUNITY POOL
• UNBEATABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Pool; Sauna; BBQ area; Guest parking; Monthly HOA fee of $468 (includes reserves, management fee, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Built in 1988
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: No yard; In-ground community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free‑standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 rooms (includes bedroom/other room configuration)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Stone countertops; No yard
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-711 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (36.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.4% in San Ramon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#4 in CA, #370 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Golden View Elementary (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,571 statewide, top 80%, 643 students, 8% FRL); Iron Horse Middle (1,009 students, 7% FRL); California High (math 90% / reading 90%, grade A+, #11 of 1,170 statewide, top 1%, 2,879 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 79% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the San Ramon Valley Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($215k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,418 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.83%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,686
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -8.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-101,934
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-150,126
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94582

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,380/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$468
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,421

Max offer price $219,418

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-516	-5% $-613	+0% $-711	+5% $-809	+10% $-906
Rent	-10% $-910	-5% $-810	+0% $-711	+5% $-611	+10% $-512
Rate	-1.0pp $-537	-0.5pp $-623	base $-711	+0.5pp $-800	+1.0pp $-891

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2100 Camino Ramon San Ramon, CA	—	1.0	300	$2,309	$7.70	7d	1	1.23mi
18000 San Ramon Valley Blvd San Ramon, CA	—	1.0	270	$2,699	$10.00	3d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $468 · $5,616/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $345,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $345,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,995 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,995 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $352,995 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $352,995 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $352,995 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $352,995 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $352,995 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $352,995 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $352,995 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $352,995 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $352,995 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $352,995 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $352,995 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $352,995 Active 960-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    historical
19. 2026-04-14
    historical
20. 2006-09-22
    historical
21. 2006-08-18
    price
22. 2006-08-06
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,380 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,380 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$3,380
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − HOA: −$5,616
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$14,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,521
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Ramon Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635130
• Math proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $138,331
• Composite: 76.08/100
• National rank: #216
• State rank: #28 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Ramon

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #370

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Ramon, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 87,007
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,424
• Household income: $214,677
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1281.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 60% White 25% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · China, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Other Indo-European 16% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Chinese 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 353.0802
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $345,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-18 Listed $352,995 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-09-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-08-18 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-08-06 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,380 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.