3909 Brainard Rd

Orange, OH 44122

$500,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$632
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$848
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-763/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $140,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-763/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $489k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (19.2% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $404k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#452 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Orange City (suburban): math 76% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #32 of 656 in OH (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Moreland Hills Elementary School (math 84% / reading 83%, grade A+, #96 of 1,584 statewide, top 6%, 919 students, 9% FRL); Ballard Brady Middle School (math 77% / reading 84%, grade A+, #41 of 654 statewide, top 7%, 433 students, 7% FRL); Orange High School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #137 of 781 statewide, top 19%, 608 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,441 units permitted in Cuyahoga County in 2024 (700 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cuyahoga County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $258k; list at $500k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.2% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,038/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 1294% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.