3909 Brainard Rd · Orange, OH 44122

$500,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1956 1.63 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your opportunity to own a little slice of heaven, sprinkled with character. Situated on 1.63 wooded acres in Orange Village, it is the original picket fence house you've been dreaming about. Features include an expansive family room and den combo, living room with wood burning fireplace, kitchen, sun room, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. There are an abundance of windows allowing natural light to permeate throughout the home. You will be craving warmer temps to enjoy outdoor dining on your own wooden deck, and discovering your green thumb in the attached greenhouse. This home combines affordability with the option to make it your own in an ideal location offering stunning views, privacy and space to grow. Schedule your viewing today so this opportunity does not slip away! Property being sold AS IS. Seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• 4 season room
• 1.6 acre lot
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• 1.6 ACRE LOT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• 4 SEASON ROOM
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• COMPLETELY REBUILT DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Asphalt driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Updated / remodeled condition
• Construction: Built with HardiPlank type and vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Below-grade finished area (approximately 600); Above-grade finished area (approximately 2,050)
• Exterior features: Deck; 1.63-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Stone counters; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Stone countertops; Walk-in closets; Partially finished basement with storage space and sump pump; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-763/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $489k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $404k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.2% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#452 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Orange City (suburban): math 76% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #32 of 656 in OH (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Moreland Hills Elementary School (math 84% / reading 83%, grade A+, #96 of 1,584 statewide, top 6%, 919 students, 9% FRL); Ballard Brady Middle School (math 77% / reading 84%, grade A+, #41 of 654 statewide, top 7%, 433 students, 7% FRL); Orange High School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #137 of 781 statewide, top 19%, 608 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,441 units permitted in Cuyahoga County in 2024 (700 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,038/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 1294% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cuyahoga County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $258k; list at $500k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $403,800 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,757
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Brainard Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,707 (0%)	15mo	$258,500	$151	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-92,515
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-115,211
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44122

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,079/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$848
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,118

Max offer price $488,768

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $78	+0% $-64	+5% $-205	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-223	+0% $-64	+5% $96	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $64	base $-64	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3659 Brainard Rd Beachwood, OH	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,995	$1.82	3d	1	0.45mi
28649 Jackson Rd Unit 1496119P Chagrin Falls, OH	4.0	3.5	1603	$10,974	$6.85	25d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $500,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $500,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $500,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $500,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $500,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $500,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,079 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,439 · $537/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,361/yr (+$113/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$5,079
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,876
• − Management: −$3,876
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$9,429
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,263
• After-tax cash flow: $1,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange City
• NCES district ID: 3910016
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $114,295
• Composite: 73.37/100
• National rank: #182
• State rank: #32 of 656 in OH

Livability — Orange

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #7361

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, OH
• County: Cuyahoga County · 1,090,369 people
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 36,678
• Household income: $101,230
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1294.0

Population outlook (Cuyahoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,244,621 people
• By 2030: 1,230,093 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 1,189,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 1,145,706 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 1,076,557 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 978,987 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 29% Asian 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cuyahoga

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.5) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.5 2020: D+34.1 2016: D+35.0 2012: D+38.7 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.81%
• Current HPI: 200.5087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+72.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $500,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $258,500 Public Records
• 2025-03-13 Sold (MLS) $258,500 MLSNOW
• 2025-02-13 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-02-07 Listed $289,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,079 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.