10450 State Highway 21

Alto, TX 75925

$77,400F

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,033/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,799
• Tax + insurance: −$890
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-2,873/mo
• Annual: $-34,473/yr
• Cap rate: -0.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.07%
• DSCR: -0.03
• 1% rule: 0.19%
• Cash to close: $149,447

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $709 of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#944 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Alto ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #484 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alto El (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 208 students, 74% FRL); Alto Middle (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 167 students, 83% FRL); Alto H S (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 161 students, 78% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 10.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.