10450 State Highway 21 · Alto, TX 75925

$77,400

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1980 2.00 ac lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is occupied and being sold as is. There is no access. Do not approach. Room count is assumed. Property is offered in an online auction on Hubzu.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 178 days

🔨 Auction listing. The $77,400 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $533,743 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#944 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Alto ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #484 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $709 of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 10.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.19% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.07%
• DSCR: -0.03
• GRM: 43.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $533,743
• List price: $77,400
• Delta: -85.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-212,426
• Equity at exit: $140,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.45×
• Total profit: $-365,760
• Equity at exit: $157,220

Cash invested: $149,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75925

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,799
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$667 /mo · $8,006/yr
• Insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-2,873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,669

Max offer price $129,272

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,436
• Closing costs: $16,012
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,400 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,400 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,400 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,400 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,400 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,400 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,400 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,400 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,400 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,400 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,400 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,400 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,400 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,400 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $77,400 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Property is occupied and being sold as is. There is no access. Do not approach. Room count is assumed. Property is offered in an online auction on Hubzu.

16. 2026-03-27
    price $84,098 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Property is occupied and being sold as is. There is no access. Do not approach. Room count is assumed. Property is offered in an online auction on Hubzu.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $91,411 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Property is occupied and being sold as is. There is no access. Do not approach. Room count is assumed. Property is offered in an online auction on Hubzu.

18. 2026-01-27
    price $99,360 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Property is occupied and being sold as is. There is no access. Do not approach. Room count is assumed. Property is offered in an online auction on Hubzu.

19. 2025-12-20
    listed $108,000 Active 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Property is occupied and being sold as is. There is no access. Do not approach. Room count is assumed. Property is offered in an online auction on Hubzu.

20. 2000-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,898
• − Property taxes: −$8,006
• − Insurance: −$2,669
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$991
• − Management: −$991
• − Depreciation: −$15,527
• Taxable loss: −$45,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,966
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807980
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,945
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #6023
• State rank: #484 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alto

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #944
• US rank: #16828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 18% Two or more races 10% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 97.3516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $77,400 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $84,098 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $91,411 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $99,360 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2000-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,008 · +44.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.