3806 N Oak Dr Unit V22

Tampa, FL 33611

$195,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 781 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,015/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$485
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-649/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-649/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (4.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 304 students, 46% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 563 students, 65% FRL); Robinson High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,354 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 423 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $195k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?