2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,270 sqft ·
Built 1964
· Condo
· Active
· 56 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,518/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$7,921
Tax + insurance
−$2,517
HOA
−$1,450
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,369
Net cashflow
$-6,739/mo
Annual
$-80,871/yr
Cap rate
0.94%
Cash-on-cash
-19.12%
DSCR
0.15
1% rule
0.43%
Cash to close
$422,917
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-81k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $86k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $76k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: property tax is 37.8% of price; HOA is 22% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$138k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 0.9% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
At $6,518/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 5272% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-67QPYVFZ12AF5S
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29