420 Island Branch Rd

Hailesboro, NY 13642

$149,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,249/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-993/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-993/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,162 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Gouverneur Central School District (town): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #582 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gouverneur Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 506 students, 62% FRL); Gouverneur Middle School (math 12% / reading 34%, grade F, #646 of 729 statewide, top 89%, 472 students, 68% FRL); Gouverneur High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 467 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 46% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gouverneur Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $150k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.