4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,906 sqft ·
Built 1892
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 45 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,610/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$681
Tax + insurance
−$216
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$338
Net cashflow
$374/mo
Annual
$4,491/yr
Cap rate
9.75%
Cash-on-cash
12.35%
DSCR
1.55
1% rule
1.24%
Cash to close
$36,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $130k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-67WRDS59CVX9X6
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29