22217 W 51st St

Shawnee, KS 66226

$420,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,502 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$590
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-135/mo
• Annual: $-1,617/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $336k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#2 in KS, #276 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• De Soto (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #3 of 169 in KS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Prairie Ridge Elementary School (math 59% / reading 70%, grade B, #45 of 684 statewide, top 8%, 472 students, 5% FRL); Mill Valley High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #19 of 327 statewide, top 6%, 1,355 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 6% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Shawnee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.