22217 W 51st St · Shawnee, KS 66226

$423,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1996 8,888 sqft lot Est $455k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This western Shawnee charmer is cute as a button. Four bedrooms on the same level with laundry are perfect for the family! Year-old bamboo flooring on the main level is as durable as it is beautiful. Vaulted ceilings in the master bedroom, a reverse osmosis system at the kitchen sink, a finished basement, and a spacious, fenced-in backyard are additional perks of this home. The Roof is only 1 year old! This one is a must-see!

Key facts

• 8,888 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: OAKMONT

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City/public water (verify); Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Attached property; 2-story floor plan; North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 8,888 square feet; Not in a flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the second level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Finished recreation room in basement; Living room with fireplace; 13 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the second floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $423k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Shawnee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#2 in KS, #276 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• De Soto (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #3 of 169 in KS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Prairie Ridge Elementary School (math 59% / reading 70%, grade B, #45 of 684 statewide, top 8%, 472 students, 5% FRL); Mill Valley High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #19 of 327 statewide, top 6%, 1,355 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 6% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $336,466 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $455,364
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5117 Anderson St	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,639 (+6%)	0mo	$460,000	$174	79
4905 Lone Elm St	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,493 (-0%)	1mo	$440,000	$176	74
21721 W 52nd St	0.36mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,519 (+1%)	1mo	$435,000	$173	72
21514 W 51st Ter	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,362 (-6%)	1mo	$425,000	$180	70
5425 Payne Ct	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,552 (+2%)	2mo	$540,000	$212	69
4726 Brockway St	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,369 (-5%)	0mo	$431,000	$182	68
21610 W 49th St	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,363 (-6%)	2mo	$430,000	$182	67
21409 W 50th Ter	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,758 (+10%)	0mo	$479,000	$174	55
21513 W 52nd St	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-10%)	0mo	$400,000	$178	54
21218 W 51st St	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,259 (-10%)	1mo	$470,000	$208	52
21436 W 48th. St	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,181 (-13%)	1mo	$420,000	$193	48
4811 Mund Rd	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,189 (-12%)	0mo	$425,000	$194	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-78,228
• Equity at exit: $63,071

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-80,641
• Equity at exit: $36,573

Cash invested: $118,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66226

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,218
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,984/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,557

Max offer price $396,194

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $-32	+0% $-152	+5% $-271	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-285	+0% $-152	+5% $-19	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $-44	base $-152	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,750
• Closing costs: $12,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21705 W 46th Ter Shawnee, KS	4.0	4.5	3400	$3,200	$0.94	2d	1	0.56mi
23402 W 52nd Ter Shawnee, KS	4.0	4.5	3741	$3,400	$0.91	24d	1	0.75mi
5836 Noreston St Shawnee, KS	4.0	3.5	2208	$3,171	$1.44	21d	1	1.09mi
5701 Woodland Dr Shawnee, KS	3.0	2.0	2176	$2,995	$1.38	24d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $423,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $423,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $423,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $423,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $423,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $423,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $423,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $423,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   status $423,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $423,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $423,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $423,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,984 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,964 · $497/mo
• Expected delta: +$981/yr (+$82/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,695
• − Property taxes: −$4,984
• − Insurance: −$2,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,230
• − Management: −$3,230
• − Depreciation: −$12,305
• Taxable loss: −$9,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,204
• After-tax cash flow: $383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: De Soto
• NCES district ID: 2005490
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $96,361
• Composite: 48.04/100
• National rank: #2192
• State rank: #3 of 169 in KS

Livability — Shawnee

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #276

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawnee, KS
• County: Johnson County · 574,662 people
• City population: 60,541
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 16,219
• Household income: $173,667
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 85.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 663,396 people
• By 2030: 702,585 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 775,386 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 841,772 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 994,137 · +49.9%
• By 2100: 1,073,036 · +61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 53.4% · R 44.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+2.7 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.26%
• Current HPI: 219.7056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $423,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-30 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-05 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $410,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $430,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Listed $440,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-27 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-27 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-23 Listed $294,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-27 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-28 Listed $220,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,984 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.