None bd · None ba ·
3,328 sqft ·
Built 1946
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 486 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$17,396/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,195
Tax + insurance
−$563
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,653
Net cashflow
$8,985/mo
Annual
$107,821/yr
Cap rate
19.77%
Cash-on-cash
48.14%
DSCR
3.14
1% rule
2.17%
Cash to close
$223,972
Investor read
This is a 14 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $800k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($108k/yr) — positive. Per door: $642/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $800k).
It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($704k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $704k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Alhambra High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 2,282 students, 86% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $550k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $17,396/mo this rent would consume 358% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1843% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-67YZFC4Y5SW148
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29