2801 Thielman St Lot 78

Merrill, WI 54452

$54,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,596/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $887/mo
• Annual: $10,647/yr
• Cap rate: 26.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.42%
• DSCR: 4.13
• 1% rule: 2.95%
• Cash to close: $15,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#134 in WI, #3,510 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Merrill Area School District (town): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #180 of 342 in WI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merrill High (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #228 of 483 statewide, top 52%, 803 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 192 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 4.5% in Merrill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Living room furniture — The furniture is outdated and could be replaced for a fresh look.