2801 Thielman St Lot 78 · Merrill, WI 54452

$54,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful manufactured home is located in the Whispering Pines mobile home community. You will love the open concept living room and kitchen with built in Dining table. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. You will enjoy the large primary bedroom with large closet and private bath. The home is ideally located in a quiet neighborhood close to schools, shopping and parks. The manufactured home was built in 2020 and is meticulously maintained, Please call today for your personal showing. Lot fees including garbage are $550 per month. All offers have to be approved by Management at the Whispering Pines trailer park.

Key facts

• Large closet
• Private bath
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• BUILT IN DINING TABLE
• LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• LARGE CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in the city of Merrill; Zoned residential; Lot size less than 1/2 acre

Exterior

• Utilities: Municipal water; Municipal sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Finished above grade living area approximately 1,152
• Exterior features: Porch; Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Bedroom 2 on main level; Bedroom 3 on main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Master bedroom bath; 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Ceiling fans; Smoke detectors; All window coverings; Walk-in closet(s); High-speed internet

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $54,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$248,832) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 4.5% in Merrill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#134 in WI, #3,510 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Merrill Area School District (town): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #180 of 342 in WI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merrill High (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #228 of 483 statewide, top 52%, 803 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 192 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $54,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.42%
• DSCR: 4.13
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,832
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 Rio Grande Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	20mo	$270,000	$216	46
402 S Cooper St	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,280 (+11%)	5mo	$155,000	$121	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $47,785
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $114,475
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54452

• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 N Memorial Dr Unit NO 2401-04 Merrill, WI	2.0	2.0	1423	$1,605	$1.13	44d	1	0.74mi
1901 E 14th St Unit Fp Merrill, WI	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,585	$1.36	44d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 630-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   remarks 500-char remark
10. 2026-06-10
    listed $54,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $10,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,498
• After-tax cash flow: $8,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Living room furniture — The furniture is outdated and could be replaced for a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace the living room furniture — Fresh furniture will improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint will make the interior look more inviting and modern.
• Both Replace the carpet in the living area — New carpet will improve the home's appearance and comfort level.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements to the landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Living room furniture · The furniture is outdated and could be replaced for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Replace the living room furniture — Fresh furniture will improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint will make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Both Replace the carpet in the living area — New carpet will improve the home's appearance and comfort level. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements to the landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merrill Area School District
• NCES district ID: 5509210
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,419
• Composite: 33.3/100
• National rank: #5507
• State rank: #180 of 342 in WI

Livability — Merrill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #3510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merrill, WI
• Population (ZIP): 18,949

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,476 people
• By 2030: 25,399 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 22,684 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 19,596 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 13,998 · -47.1%
• By 2100: 9,732 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.7% · R 61.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.6pp toward R · 2008: 12.5pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+20.8 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+12.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.99%
• Current HPI: 192.6923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $54,000 CWMLS