15806 54th Street Ct E #59

Sumner, WA 98390

$149,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 647 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $704/mo
• Annual: $8,447/yr
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.16%
• DSCR: 1.99
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 647 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#265 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 60 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.3% in Sumner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 647 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.