409 Pancho Maples Dr #7

La Feria, TX 78559

$190,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,793 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,923/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $206/mo
• Annual: $2,475/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.65%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#667 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• La Feria ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #630 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C E Vail El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 366 students, 95% FRL); W B Green J H (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 454 students, 85% FRL); La Feria H S (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 909 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 50% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in La Feria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,923/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: bathroom vanity — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: exterior siding — moderate wear