15 Vineyard Dr

Mayflower, AR 72106

$244,500D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,809/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$92
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-352/mo
• Annual: $-4,228/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $68,460

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $244k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (26.0% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?