15 Vineyard Dr · Mayflower, AR 72106

$244,500

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · Land · 83 Days on market

Built 2026 7,840 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $253k · at est. $92/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Conway plan with 5 Bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage! These homes feature LVP flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and closets! Kitchen features granite countertops and an undermount kitchen sink! LED Lighting throughout! Primary bedroom with have a walk-in shower, granite counters and a walk-in closet! Brick exterior with Hardie® siding per plan and Architectural shingles. Programmable thermostat! Special Builder warranty. Ask for details. Photos may be renderings/stock photos! HOA fees will be used for management. HOA/POA dues are not yet determined, the amount is estimated. HOA will have a $75 transfer fee. Taxes are estimated.

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Walk-in closet
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UNDERMOUNT KITCHEN SINK
• LED LIGHTING
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $180,928 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,000
• List price: $244,500
• Delta: -3.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $104,426
• Equity at exit: $213,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $323,747
• Equity at exit: $453,344

Cash invested: $68,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,668/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,255

Max offer price $193,514

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-183	-5% $-268	+0% $-352	+5% $-437	+10% $-521
Rent	-10% $-495	-5% $-424	+0% $-352	+5% $-281	+10% $-209
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-290	base $-352	+0.5pp $-416	+1.0pp $-480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,125
• Closing costs: $7,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	44d	1	0.03mi
17 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	0.04mi
3 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	0.05mi
110 Sunbelt Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1897	$1,750	$0.92	44d	1	0.09mi
104 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	44d	1	0.13mi
101 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,923	$1.16	14d	1	0.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,500 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,500 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,500 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,500 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,500 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,500 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,500 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,500 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,500 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $244,500 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,500 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,500 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,500 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,500 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,500 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $244,500 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Charming Conway plan with 5 Bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage! These homes feature LVP flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and closets! Kitchen features granite countertops and an undermount kitchen sink! LED Lighting throughout! Primary bedroom with have a walk-in shower, granite counters and a walk-in closet! Brick exterior with Hardie® siding per plan and Architectural shingles. Programmable thermostat! Special Builder warranty. Ask for details. Photos may be renderings/stock photos! HOA fees will be used for management. HOA/POA dues are not yet determined, the amount is estimated. HOA will have a $75 transfer fee. Taxes are estimated.

17. 2026-04-30
    price $253,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Charming Conway plan with 5 Bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage! These homes feature LVP flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and closets! Kitchen features granite countertops and an undermount kitchen sink! LED Lighting throughout! Primary bedroom with have a walk-in shower, granite counters and a walk-in closet! Brick exterior with Hardie® siding per plan and Architectural shingles. Programmable thermostat! Special Builder warranty. Ask for details. Photos may be renderings/stock photos! HOA fees will be used for management. HOA/POA dues are not yet determined, the amount is estimated. HOA will have a $75 transfer fee. Taxes are estimated.

18. 2026-04-30
    status Price Change 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Charming Conway plan with 5 Bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage! These homes feature LVP flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and closets! Kitchen features granite countertops and an undermount kitchen sink! LED Lighting throughout! Primary bedroom with have a walk-in shower, granite counters and a walk-in closet! Brick exterior with Hardie® siding per plan and Architectural shingles. Programmable thermostat! Special Builder warranty. Ask for details. Photos may be renderings/stock photos! HOA fees will be used for management. HOA/POA dues are not yet determined, the amount is estimated. HOA will have a $75 transfer fee. Taxes are estimated.

19. 2026-03-31
    status Under Contract 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Charming Conway plan with 5 Bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage! These homes feature LVP flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and closets! Kitchen features granite countertops and an undermount kitchen sink! LED Lighting throughout! Primary bedroom with have a walk-in shower, granite counters and a walk-in closet! Brick exterior with Hardie® siding per plan and Architectural shingles. Programmable thermostat! Special Builder warranty. Ask for details. Photos may be renderings/stock photos! HOA fees will be used for management. HOA/POA dues are not yet determined, the amount is estimated. HOA will have a $75 transfer fee. Taxes are estimated.

20. 2026-02-25
    listed $250,000 New Listing 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Charming Conway plan with 5 Bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage! These homes feature LVP flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and closets! Kitchen features granite countertops and an undermount kitchen sink! LED Lighting throughout! Primary bedroom with have a walk-in shower, granite counters and a walk-in closet! Brick exterior with Hardie® siding per plan and Architectural shingles. Programmable thermostat! Special Builder warranty. Ask for details. Photos may be renderings/stock photos! HOA fees will be used for management. HOA/POA dues are not yet determined, the amount is estimated. HOA will have a $75 transfer fee. Taxes are estimated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,696
• − Property taxes: −$3,668
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,113
• Taxable loss: −$8,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,056
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $244,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $253,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $250,000 CARMLS