228 Third Ave

Herkimer, NY 13350

$159,900C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $238/mo
• Annual: $2,856/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D, employment D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Herkimer Elementary School (math 51% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 517 students, 71% FRL); Herkimer High School (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 579 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 46% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.5% in Herkimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.