228 Third Ave · Herkimer, NY 13350

$159,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition Est $157k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-story home that has been completely renovated from top to bottom within the last five years. This move-in ready property features modern updates throughout while maintaining a warm and inviting feel. Enjoy a spacious layout with bright living areas, an updated kitchen, and stylish finishes throughout the home. Each bedroom offers comfortable space and natural light, making it perfect for family living, guests, or a home office. With major updates already completed, this home provides peace of mind and low-maintenance living for years to come. A true turnkey property you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.5% in Herkimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 3rd Ave	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (+2%)	6mo	$106,000	$77	80
613 W German St	0.52mi	4/1.0	1,400 (+4%)	1mo	$172,670	$123	63
317 S Bellinger St	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (-10%)	5mo	$171,720	$141	59
302 W German St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,318 (-2%)	2mo	$195,000	$148	55
810 Bellinger Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,499 (+11%)	2mo	$174,000	$116	54
704 Ronald St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,384 (+2%)	13mo	$239,900	$173	47
307 Park Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (-8%)	22mo	$132,500	$107	43
318 Gray St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (-2%)	11mo	$145,500	$111	41
213 Stimson St	0.61mi	3/— (-1)	1,480 (+10%)	13mo	$19,000	$13	40
334 S Washington St	0.54mi	4/1.5	1,508 (+12%)	14mo	$127,500	$85	39
215 N Bellinger St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (+13%)	20mo	$164,000	$107	37
620 Ronald St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,172 (-13%)	10mo	$244,100	$208	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $102,268
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $289,294
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $293	+0% $238	+5% $183	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $171	+0% $238	+5% $305	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $279	base $238	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	45d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready, recently renovated home offers a good condition with updated interiors and a solid exterior. Simple exterior updates and landscaping could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $159,900 CNYIS