7886 99th Ct

Vero Lake Estates, FL 32967

$432,900F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,270
• Tax + insurance: −$722
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-511/mo
• Annual: $-6,129/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $121,212

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $433k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-511 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($420k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Treasure Coast Elementary School (math 61% / reading 57%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 59% FRL); Storm Grove Middle School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,020 students, 50% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $433k implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,140/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 674% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.