7886 99th Ct · Vero Lake Estates, FL 32967

$432,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · Land · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• White cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SIZABLE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $433k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-511 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Treasure Coast Elementary School (math 61% / reading 57%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 59% FRL); Storm Grove Middle School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,020 students, 50% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,140/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 674% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($420k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $433k implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,036 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-111,837
• Equity at exit: $64,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-174,650
• Equity at exit: $37,429

Cash invested: $121,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32967

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 611
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,270
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$541 /mo · $6,494/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,787

Max offer price $358,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-361	+0% $-511	+5% $-660	+10% $-810
Rent	-10% $-759	-5% $-635	+0% $-511	+5% $-387	+10% $-263
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-401	base $-511	+0.5pp $-623	+1.0pp $-737

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,225
• Closing costs: $12,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7955 101st Ct Vero Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.27mi
8720 97th Ave Vero Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2357	$2,300	$0.98	23d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (600 chars)

   Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (600 chars)

   Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

3. 2026-03-17
   price $432,900
4. 2026-03-13
   price $432,900 600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (600 chars)

   Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

5. 2026-03-04
   price $421,900 600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (600 chars)

   Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

6. 2026-01-06
   price $415,900 600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (600 chars)

   Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

7. 2025-10-24
   listed $421,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (600 chars)

   Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

8. 2025-10-24
   listed $425,900 Active 600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (600 chars)

   Ask us about our incentives, builder paid closing costs, & no down payment options! The Coral welcomes guests into an open floor plan. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, white cabinets and a walk-in pantry. The master features a walk-in closet and private bath. Located on a gorgeous corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this home is minutes from Sebastian River High School and Treasure Cost Elementary School, both highly rated. Plus you'll love that the beaches, shopping and other amenities are nearby! * * appliance models are subject to availability * *

9. 2022-04-22
   soldstatus $105,000
10. 2022-04-22
    soldstatus $105,000
11. 2004-05-18
    soldstatus $79,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,249
• − Property taxes: −$6,494
• − Insurance: −$2,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,015
• − Management: −$3,015
• − Depreciation: −$12,593
• Taxable loss: −$13,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,323
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vero Lake Estates, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,240
• Household income: $78,058
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 674.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.34%
• Current HPI: 282.6156
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+442.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — RAIRCMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $432,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $432,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $421,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $415,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $425,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $421,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $79,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.