12621 Maple Bonsai Dr

Riverview, FL 33579

$379,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,415 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$979
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $-442/mo
• Annual: $-5,299/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $379k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-442 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (15.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warren Hope Dawson Elementary (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 948 students, 41% FRL); Barrington Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,434 students, 34% FRL); Newsome High School (math 64% / reading 77%, grade B+, #55 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 3,203 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hillsborough average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.