6449 Lawson Rd

Mayville, NY 14757

$45,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $878/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $354/mo
• Annual: $4,251/yr
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.74%
• DSCR: 2.50
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($878 rent vs $45k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#259 in NY, #4,087 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chautauqua Lake Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #218 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.