6449 Lawson Rd · Mayville, NY 14757

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1996 10 ac lot $47/sqft · 84% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* AMAZING OPPORTUNITY * 2 Bed W 10 ACRES * Open Floor Plan W Laminate Flooring Throughout 1st Floor / Ceiling Fan In Dining Area / Kitchen Appliances Included / Pellet Stove / Full Bath With Stand Up Shower / 2 Beds On 2nd Floor / Some Updated Vinyl Windows / Metal Roof / Plenty Of Storage W Two Sheds / Water Pump & Pex Plumbing / 200 Amp Electric Service / Cleared Outdoor Area W Fire Pit / Hiking Trails Throughout Property / Close To Snowmobile Trails / Perfect Recreational Property / Property Contains Wetlands / If Any, Offers Will Be Negotiated Monday May 18 @ 3PM

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laminate flooring
• Ceiling fan

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• CEILING FAN
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• PELLET STOVE
• STAND UP SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electric with circuit breakers; Well water
• Home design: 2-story house; Resale property; Metal roof
• Construction: Wood siding; PEX plumbing; Existing structure; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Dirt and gravel driveways; Shed(s) / storage; Rectangular, secluded, wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Eat-in layout; Kitchen/Family Room combo
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second level, 16 x 13); Bedroom 2 (Second level, 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating (see remarks)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen/family room combo; Living/dining room; Sliding glass door(s); Sliding doors; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($878 rent vs $45k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#259 in NY, #4,087 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chautauqua Lake Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #218 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.74%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,616
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -84.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $27,219
• Equity at exit: $19,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $66,327
• Equity at exit: $29,239

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14757

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $367	+0% $354	+5% $342	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $285	-5% $320	+0% $354	+5% $389	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $366	base $354	+0.5pp $343	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $45,000 Active 584-char remark
3. 2025-09-12
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-03
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$843
• − Management: −$843
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$907
• After-tax cash flow: $3,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chautauqua Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600018
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 52.84/100
• National rank: #1535
• State rank: #218 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mayville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #4087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,112

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• Current HPI: 318.9521
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $45,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,016 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.