193 Gambit Ln

Ernstville, MD 25427

$255,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 931 sqft · Built 1784 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-210/mo
• Annual: $-2,517/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.53%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (35.9% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $164k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#480 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Berkeley County Schools (other): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 55 in WV (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1784 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 1,460 units permitted in Berkeley County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berkeley County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1784 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.