193 Gambit Ln · Ernstville, MD 25427

$255,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 931 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1784 3.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully restored historic home that blends timeless character with modern comfort. Originally built in the 1700s, this unique property has been completely renovated and sits on 3.86 acres. Renovations include a new roof and new windows in the last 5 years, along with updated electric and new LED lighting, plus more! The property provides plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors, including starting your mornings on the adorable covered front porch. The property borders hundreds of feet of Cherry Run stream. Inside you will find a warm and inviting interior filled with character, from original details to thoughtfully integrated modern finishes. This home has 2 bedrooms, 1 ful

Key facts

• 3.86 acre lot
• Built 1784
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking type
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated 1,200 sq ft finished above grade
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Cement siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Two or more access exits

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate plank flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Wood-burning stove; Radiator heating; Window unit(s) for cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Combination kitchen and dining area; Double/dual staircase; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#480 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Berkeley County Schools (other): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 55 in WV (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 1,460 units permitted in Berkeley County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Berkeley County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1784 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,546 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1784 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.53%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $125,383
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $379,471
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25427

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $700/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,901

Max offer price $217,941

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-138	+0% $-210	+5% $-282	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-274	+0% $-210	+5% $-145	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-81	-0.5pp $-145	base $-210	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $255,000 Active
3. 2026-04-25
   historical $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,040/yr (+$87/mo · 148.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$700
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,726
• After-tax cash flow: $-791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berkeley County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,599
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7273
• State rank: #24 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ernstville

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #26861

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Berkeley County
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,595
• Household income: $87,184
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 120.0

Population outlook (Berkeley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,359 people
• By 2030: 134,684 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 148,219 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 159,300 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 179,920 · +41.3%
• By 2100: 183,896 · +44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Berkeley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.8) · D 31.2% · R 67.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -35.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.8 2020: R+31.2 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.42%
• Current HPI: 270.4542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Coming Soon $255,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $700 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.