432 Northwood Cir

Rockdale, TX 76567

$85,990F

None bd · None ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $0/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-573/mo
• Annual: $-6,871/yr
• Cap rate: -1.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -28.54%
• DSCR: -0.27
• 1% rule: 0.00%
• Cash to close: $24,077

Investor read

• This is a manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,040 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockdale ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #395 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -1.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rockdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.