432 Northwood Cir · Rockdale, TX 76567

$85,990

None bd · None ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1984 0.77 ac lot $71/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience true country living on this huge, spacious lot. The property includes a mobile home and two septic tanks, along with a shed featuring a mechanic’s garage and cement pad. A mechanic lift was previously installed, (non existing anymore) but you could install one making it ideal for auto work, hobbies, or storage. No restrictions allow complete freedom to use the property as you see fit. Buyer to verify measurements and all other information.

Key facts

• Huge spacious lot
• No restrictions
• Cement pad

Tags

• HUGE SPACIOUS LOT
• TWO SEPTIC TANKS
• CEMENT PAD
• NO RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• Cap rate -1.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rockdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,040 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockdale ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #395 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.00% ✗
• Cap rate: -1.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -28.54%
• DSCR: -0.27
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,646
• List price: $85,990
• Delta: -63.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -83.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.09×
• Total profit: $-50,415
• Equity at exit: $12,821

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.78×
• Total profit: $-90,912
• Equity at exit: $7,435

Cash invested: $24,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76567

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 161

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $0 none
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,030/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,498
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,990 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $85,990 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,990 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,990 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,990 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,990 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,990 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,990 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,990 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,990 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,990 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,990 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,990 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,990 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,990 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-04-12
    price $85,990 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Experience true country living on this huge, spacious lot. The property includes a mobile home and two septic tanks, along with a shed featuring a mechanic’s garage and cement pad. A mechanic lift was previously installed, (non existing anymore) but you could install one making it ideal for auto work, hobbies, or storage. No restrictions allow complete freedom to use the property as you see fit. Buyer to verify measurements and all other information.

17. 2026-04-04
    price $86,990 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Experience true country living on this huge, spacious lot. The property includes a mobile home and two septic tanks, along with a shed featuring a mechanic’s garage and cement pad. A mechanic lift was previously installed, (non existing anymore) but you could install one making it ideal for auto work, hobbies, or storage. No restrictions allow complete freedom to use the property as you see fit. Buyer to verify measurements and all other information.

18. 2026-03-21
    price $87,990 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Experience true country living on this huge, spacious lot. The property includes a mobile home and two septic tanks, along with a shed featuring a mechanic’s garage and cement pad. A mechanic lift was previously installed, (non existing anymore) but you could install one making it ideal for auto work, hobbies, or storage. No restrictions allow complete freedom to use the property as you see fit. Buyer to verify measurements and all other information.

19. 2026-02-25
    price $88,990 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Experience true country living on this huge, spacious lot. The property includes a mobile home and two septic tanks, along with a shed featuring a mechanic’s garage and cement pad. A mechanic lift was previously installed, (non existing anymore) but you could install one making it ideal for auto work, hobbies, or storage. No restrictions allow complete freedom to use the property as you see fit. Buyer to verify measurements and all other information.

20. 2026-01-29
    price $89,990 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Experience true country living on this huge, spacious lot. The property includes a mobile home and two septic tanks, along with a shed featuring a mechanic’s garage and cement pad. A mechanic lift was previously installed, (non existing anymore) but you could install one making it ideal for auto work, hobbies, or storage. No restrictions allow complete freedom to use the property as you see fit. Buyer to verify measurements and all other information.

21. 2026-01-13
    listed $94,990 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Experience true country living on this huge, spacious lot. The property includes a mobile home and two septic tanks, along with a shed featuring a mechanic’s garage and cement pad. A mechanic lift was previously installed, (non existing anymore) but you could install one making it ideal for auto work, hobbies, or storage. No restrictions allow complete freedom to use the property as you see fit. Buyer to verify measurements and all other information.

22. 2024-10-23
    price
23. 2024-08-27
    listed Active
24. 2017-10-10
    soldstatus
25. 2017-08-29
    soldstatus
26. 2007-02-12
    soldstatus
27. 1996-07-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 52.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $0
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,030
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$0
• − Management: −$0
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable loss: −$8,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockdale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837590
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,586
• Composite: 34.64/100
• National rank: #5147
• State rank: #395 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rockdale

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1040
• US rank: #18508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,457

Population outlook (Milam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,051 people
• By 2030: 23,613 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 22,693 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 21,879 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 20,974 · -12.8%
• By 2100: 19,414 · -19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 11% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.3) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -57.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.3 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+49.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.12%
• Current HPI: 217.5536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $85,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $86,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $87,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $88,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $89,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $94,990 HARMLS
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-08-27 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2017-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,030 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.