1784 Longleaf Prairie Dr

Davenport, FL 33837

$269,990D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,674 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,490/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $75,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 2240 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Davenport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.