4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,774 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 87 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,155/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,615
Tax + insurance
−$513
HOA
−$50
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$452
Net cashflow
$-476/mo
Annual
$-5,708/yr
Cap rate
4.44%
Cash-on-cash
-6.62%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$86,212
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (22.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (30.0% below list).
It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $215k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Warrior Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 551 students, 67% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL).
Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6AW9PTDCYN0TDK
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29