11-R David Dr

Lebanon, PA 17046

$39,999C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 1966 · Manufactured · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,457/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $797/mo
• Annual: $9,560/yr
• Cap rate: 32.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.48%
• DSCR: 5.11
• 1% rule: 3.64%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#453 in PA, #4,145 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Cornwall-Lebanon SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #219 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Lebanon County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lebanon County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 32.2% vs local median 1.8% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.