11-R David Dr · Lebanon, PA 17046

$39,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1966 Est $31k · 30% over ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean 2018 mobile home located in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Rent $310 per month unless you have a pet - then the rent is $335 ($25.00 for the pet monthly). Public water and sewer. All buyers need to be park approved.

Key facts

• Built 1966
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition noted as below average
• Financial info: Ownership interest: ground rent; Improvement assessed value listed (agent-estimated data)
• HOA & community: Located in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park; Ground rent of $350 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home (pre-1976); Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Mobile home structure
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent exists (monthly payment)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Paneled walls and drywall; Carpet, hardwood, and luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.2% vs local median 1.9% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#453 in PA, #4,145 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Cornwall-Lebanon SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #219 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Lebanon County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lebanon County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,799 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.48%
• DSCR: 5.11
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $30,720
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 David Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	624 (-2%)	24mo	$30,000	$48	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $51,005
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.0%
• Equity multiple: 13.50×
• Total profit: $140,005
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17046

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $449

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $819	-5% $808	+0% $797	+5% $785	+10% $774
Rent	-10% $682	-5% $739	+0% $797	+5% $854	+10% $912
Rate	-1.0pp $817	-0.5pp $807	base $797	+0.5pp $786	+1.0pp $776

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,999 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,999 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,999 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,999 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $39,999 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $42,500 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $42,500 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $45,000 Active 782-char remark
18. 2023-06-09
    soldstatus $49,900 Closed 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Clean 2018 mobile home located in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Rent $310 per month unless you have a pet - then the rent is $335 ($25.00 for the pet monthly). Public water and sewer. All buyers need to be park approved.

19. 2023-05-27
    status Pending 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Clean 2018 mobile home located in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Rent $310 per month unless you have a pet - then the rent is $335 ($25.00 for the pet monthly). Public water and sewer. All buyers need to be park approved.

20. 2023-05-01
    listed $49,900 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Clean 2018 mobile home located in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Rent $310 per month unless you have a pet - then the rent is $335 ($25.00 for the pet monthly). Public water and sewer. All buyers need to be park approved.

21. 2023-04-28
    historical $49,900 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Clean 2018 mobile home located in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Rent $310 per month unless you have a pet - then the rent is $335 ($25.00 for the pet monthly). Public water and sewer. All buyers need to be park approved.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,291
• After-tax cash flow: $7,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall-Lebanon SD
• NCES district ID: 4206840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $62,483
• Composite: 41.0/100
• National rank: #3589
• State rank: #219 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #4145

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lebanon County · 95,836 people
• City population: 71,996
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,835
• Household income: $62,221
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 905.0

Population outlook (Lebanon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,806 people
• By 2030: 147,534 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 152,952 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 159,406 · +10.1%
• By 2075: 181,736 · +25.5%
• By 2100: 198,402 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 20% Dominican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Lebanon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.6% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.36%
• Current HPI: 217.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.36%
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $39,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $42,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-09 Sold (MLS) $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-01 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-28 Coming Soon $49,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $741 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.