133 Dahlia Ct

Forest City, FL 32714

$289,999C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,820 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,242/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $966/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($966/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in FL, #2,657 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forest City Elementary School (math 54% / reading 60%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 793 students, 75% FRL); Teague Middle School (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,206 students, 62% FRL); Lake Brantley High School (math 38% / reading 56%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,719 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Forest City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.