133 Dahlia Ct · Forest City, FL 32714

$289,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1970 0.35 ac lot Est $538k · 46% under · waterfront ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Attention investors, fix & flip professionals, and savvy buyers seeking sweat equity opportunities. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,820 square feet of living space situated on a generous 0.35-acre lot in a quiet cul-de-sac setting. Priced to move, this as-is property presents exceptional renovation potential for those ready to capitalize on a solid investment. The Upside: The oversized lot provides outstanding value-add possibilities, including ADU potential for generating supplemental rental income. The roof is only 11 years old, reducing a major capital expenditure from your renovation budget. Exterior window shutters add curb appeal,

Key facts

• Adu potential
• Highly rated schools
• Single carport

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• ADU POTENTIAL
• SINGLE CARPORT
• UNFINISHED SCREENED PORCH
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($966/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Forest City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in FL, #2,657 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forest City Elementary School (math 54% / reading 60%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 793 students, 75% FRL); Teague Middle School (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,206 students, 62% FRL); Lake Brantley High School (math 38% / reading 56%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,719 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,246 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $538,083
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1009 Woodall Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,813 (-0%)	3mo	$395,000	$218	68
613 Andrew St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,804 (-1%)	8mo	$392,000	$217	66
179 Alder Ct	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,705 (-6%)	3mo	$390,000	$229	66
671 W Cadillac Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+1%)	0mo	$380,000	$207	64
608 Antilla Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,864 (+2%)	6mo	$450,000	$241	62
610 San Sebastian Prado	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-8%)	4mo	$391,500	$233	58
413 Majorca Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,976 (+9%)	2mo	$409,500	$207	56
1004 Cathy Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,611 (-12%)	1mo	$450,000	$279	55
419 Navarre Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,702 (-6%)	1mo	$465,000	$273	55
514 San Marie Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-10%)	7mo	$360,000	$219	55
450 Forest Lake Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-11%)	6mo	$240,000	$148	48
1221 Forest Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-10%)	8mo	$278,500	$170	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,595
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,754
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32714

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $289,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $163	+0% $81	+5% $-333	+10% $-433
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-8	+0% $81	+5% $169	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $154	base $81	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1147 Magnolia Dr Altamonte Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1646	$2,245	$1.36	25d	1	0.31mi
910 Sycamore Ln Altamonte Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1329	$2,500	$1.88	0d	1	0.65mi
1227 Pendleton Dr Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,400	$1.56	25d	1	0.69mi
812 Gullberry Ln Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1629	$2,300	$1.41	25d	1	0.76mi
700 Post Lake Pl Apopka, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,156	$2.28	0d	48	0.79mi
119 N Weathersfield Ave Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1559	$2,500	$1.60	25d	1	1.02mi
616 Iris St Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,500	$1.72	16d	1	1.02mi
520 Terraceview Cv Altamonte Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,134	$2.10	0d	25	1.07mi
1397 Holly Glen Run Apopka, FL	4.0	3.0	2375	$2,700	$1.14	16d	1	1.08mi
1193 Bunnell Rd Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,195	$1.70	25d	1	1.09mi
1224 Helen St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,395	$1.54	12d	1	1.09mi
143 N Weathersfield Ave Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,600	$1.67	4d	1	1.10mi
563 Northbridge Dr Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1365	$1,950	$1.43	19d	1	1.13mi
605 Applewood Ave Altamonte Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,725	$1.47	6d	1	1.14mi
713 Saint Michael Ln Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$2,400	$1.55	6d	1	1.15mi
588 Brantley Terrace Way Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,875	$1.43	25d	2	1.16mi
651 Northbridge Dr Unit 651 Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1590	$2,000	$1.26	25d	1	1.20mi
505 Via del Oro Dr #201 Altamonte Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,050	$1.63	25d	1	1.24mi
355 Weathersfield Ave Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,995	$1.43	25d	1	1.29mi
550 Via del Oro Dr #106 Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,190	$1.37	25d	1	1.35mi
550 Via del Oro Dr #106 Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,190	$1.37	0d	1	1.35mi
1337 Lake Asher Cir Apopka, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,500	$1.69	23d	1	1.36mi
564 Breckenridge Vlg #106 Altamonte Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1332	$1,950	$1.46	12d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   status Active
3. 2026-04-01
   price $289,999
4. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-11
   price $295,999
6. 2026-02-23
   listed $299,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,814/yr (+$151/mo · 305.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,153
• − Management: −$2,153
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$4,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$989
• After-tax cash flow: $1,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — Forest City

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #2657

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest City, FL
• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,905
• Household income: $70,955
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1961.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -200.78%
• Current HPI: 338.6894
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $289,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $295,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · -34.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.