4700 Aurora Dr #25

San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA 93003

$359,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,533/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax + insurance: −$598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-480/mo
• Annual: $-5,755/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $100,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $359k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-480 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (29.4% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $253k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ventura Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #218 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elmhurst Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 362 students, 68% FRL); Anacapa Middle (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #239 of 498 statewide, top 48%, 691 students, 67% FRL); Buena High (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 1,710 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 40% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in San Buenaventura (Ventura) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.