5406 Highway 158

June Lake, CA 93529

$825,000F

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,957 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,879/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax + insurance: −$890
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,234
• Net cashflow: $-572/mo
• Annual: $-6,865/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $231,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $825k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $724k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $588k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($800k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $588k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#639 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eastern Sierra Unified (rural): math 33% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #626 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Antelope Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 121 students, 49% FRL); Coleville High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #332 of 1,170 statewide, top 30%, 64 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Mono County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mono County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $475k; list at $825k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.